Every one has their own ideas about what’s coming next, and I don’t claim to have any insider knowledge into the future, but I’d like to share my thoughts. Take them or leave them. I’m always interested in what’s coming in the future, especially technology.
All new technologies develop in S-shaped waves (exponential growth that slows to a plateau). In fact, these waves are so predictable, that once a technology has started growing exponentially, it’s fairly simple to extrapolate its growth into the future. Some waves move faster than others. Currently, technologies I believe to be on the upward slope are smart-phones, tablets, multi-core processors, 3D, electric cars, solar, and the smart-grid.
Smart-phones and Tablets
The iPad has helped define the Tablet category, although it’s been around for a while. Microsoft has had tablets out for a long time. This area has been covered fully by so many others. Suffice it to say: the iPad is big deal and apps for the iPad are only beginning. There will be eventually be an Android and Windows answer to it, just as in the smart-phone market. Just as the laptop has replaced the desktop for many people, the tablet may eventually replace the laptop. Another big trend will be the increase in multi-core processors, even in these small devices. Already, Android and iOS devices can do multi-tasking and even with the limited smart-phone processors of today, Android 2.1 comes standard with voice recognition. Windows Phone 7 is just getting started, but soon it will be another big contender in this space. Chrome OS, which is basically a thin OS layer for running the Chrome web browser, as well as HP/Palm’s Web-OS might also become players in the tablet market. However, I think eventually Android will take the majority of the market, much like Windows took the PC market from Apple.
Right now we expect these tiny devices to be a GPS, music player, movie-player, camera, video-recorder, gaming-system, phone, and be constantly connected to the web. In the future, we’ll expect this and so much more. I think the smart-phone/tablet will be a very important trend. Ignoring it would be madness.
3D
Here’s a 3D movie list. Clearly there rate of 3D movies is increasing, and the recent increase in 3D-movies is only the beginning. This is mainly due to the technology making 3D more visually appealing and easier to produce. Avatar helped to define this category. So, with all of these great 3D movies out there, people will eventually want to watch them in their home, just as the home theater went from blank and white to color to HD. So at some point soon, 3D TV will be ubiquitous. What’s next? Video games. The Nintendo 3DS has already begun this phase, putting 3D in a tiny hand-held device. Can smart-phones/tablets be next? Probably.
Electric Cars, Solar, etc.
Several car makers have already announced electric cars to be launched in the coming year: GM Volt, Nissan Leaf, Tesla’s Model S. Of all these, I think Tesla is the most interesting and will be the winner in this market. Innovation often comes from small companies outside of the mainstream. The big companies are too slow to change. However, the Nissan Leaf also looks interesting.
No matter what your opinion on climate change (if it’s true I think we’ll probably have to resort to geo-engineering), the world will have to start moving away from fossil fuels. If not for any other reason, for the simple reason that it’s getting more and more expensive. Solar power is one of the promising sources of renewable energy. The neat thing about solar is that unlike other alternative energy sources (geothermal, hydro-power, wind, nuclear), solar can scale both large and small. The optional solar panels on the new Prius is a good example of this. As solar technology improves, I think we’ll see more of them everywhere.
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